KB- Just 48 hours after the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, you sent me a message predicting that this war might turn out badly for Israel, because current circumstances are radically different from those of 20 years ago. You told me that Hamas had planned and led to a reaction from Israel which would quickly lead international public opinion to change, after the initial fear and solidarity with Israel. You mentioned in particular, as factors that would drive this change, the presence of millions of people on social networks, even in the West, who sympathize with Palestinian suffering. And you told me a few days later that the two major trends on a global scale, two sometimes contradictory trends, the one that aspires to more freedom and the one that aspires to more equality, while often in conflict, were both working to the disadvantage of Israel. I was intrigued by these messages because you are one of the few who predicted the global economic crisis of 2008 and warned us, in the early days, about the spread of COVID. Can you clarify your thoughts on the war in Gaza and its impact on Israel ?
NT- Let's not take sides and examine the situation from an empirical (and predictive) point of view. I'm not into current affairs ; my profession is risk analysis and mostly concerns the fragility of systems. The world is moving from a traditional, hierarchical, and vertical system towards a networked horizontal system, spontaneously, at all levels. This phenomenon is accelerated by globalization. The press used to be vertical, in the sense that you and I passively watched the TV set and received whatever information the system wanted to give us. We could not contribute to the debate. As I explained in 'Skin in the Game,' thanks to social networks, the relationship is now more symmetrical ; each of us both give...
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